Where is the tipping point?

[drjmellor]

It's nice to run on CNG, but as a society we are still dependent on oil for the vast majority of our transportation and movement of cargo. Transitioning to other fuel alternatives will happen, but it takes time. In the mean time, where is the tipping point for oil? When do the economies of the world suffer enough for the price of oil to come down?

[gringostar]

Re: Where is the tipping point?

We are just about there. When gas hits $5.00 per gallon people will seriously consider carpooling and public transportation. But, who knows? Europe has had $5.00 and $6.00 gas for years and their hwys are still crowded.

[CraziFuzzy]

Re: Where is the tipping point?

We are approaching a stable price for gasoline, as evident by the rapid transition americans have already made. Sales of large vehicles has dropped significantly (the Ford F-series, previously the number 1 sold vehicle in america for pretty much all time, dropped over 30% on a year ago). Public transportation systems have seen a massive influx of use, to the point of choking. DC Metro is encouraging people to try to change work times to spread use out around rush hour. SoCal Metrolink has seen packed cars, and is rabidly awaiting a large order for many new cars to be added to the fleet. I drive a natural gas car, and even I have recently took a pay cut to change jobs to one closer to home. My net change was zero, but I consider my driving time as part of the work day.

Overall, as more and more people change habits such as these, demand will drop, and you will see a stabalizing effect. We aren't there yet, but it is in sight.

As for india and china, I have a feeling their rapid economic growth will start slowing, mostly due to the high oil prices. This will also help our prices, as overall global demand will drop.

[IndyRonbo]

Re: Where is the tipping point?

Until the USA starts making affordable "PHIL" or home use filling units and certified conversion stations or shops are established we will always be on oil. I have a natural gas well on my farm and trying to get a compressor and convert my vehicles is so costly that the payback of 3 years and getting capitol to make the conversion possible is above my means. I have free gas but no way to use it. I do believe CNG is the way to bypass the oil refinery and provide the cleanest possible transportation.

When will we get there? I don't know but I do know that here in Indiana there are only three CNG stations and not much incentive to change as Utah has.

Just an opinion.

[cngacrossusa]

Re: Where is the tipping point?

Definitely getting to tipping point. Pres Bush Jr and all his TX Big Oil cronies are killing the USA!!! All the harm they have done with EPA draconian rules, no mandates on car makers, no building of cng infrastructure, denial to release strategic oil reserves, weaseled way into war in Iraq but still haven't caught Osama in Afghanistan/Pakistan in almost 7 years is a JOKE!!! I say THROW ALL THOSE SCOUNDRELS OUT OF OFFICE!!! Oust all the status quo Senators, Representatives, Governors, etc. OUT OF OFFICE as well . . . . Let's START OVER!!!!

Also, vote with your pocketbook as well by BOYCOTTING all USA auto makers that do not sell a cng vehicle in USA - - - thus, DO NOT buy anything from GM, Ford, Dodge, Toyota, Nissan, VW, Mazda, Lexus, Mercedes, etc. Only company with a cng car in USA is Honda . . . buy a Honda Civic GX!!

P.S. Car makers like GM, VW, Mercedes, etc. are ABSOLUTE TWO-FACE SCOUNDRELS by selling cng vehicles in Europe and Asia but NOT here in USA . . . . sacreligious!!! BOYCOTT them ALL . . . let them go bankrupt and then they might break ties with Big Oil . . . but don't hold your breath!!

[Adrian]

Re: Where is the tipping point?

This isnt Europe.

You're right, I think we are taxed less in the US and end up with a larger portion of our paycheck in our hand. So, if Europe can handle $6/gallon...following this logic the US can handle more?

[smggt]

Re: Where is the tipping point?

Not to mention that over there, you can ride a motorcycle without having to worry about 'Sister' Gonzalez trying to make you a new passenger in her Toyota Sequoia, while changing the DVD in the overhead screen, yelling at her 7 kids in the back seat, putting on her makeup, and eating spaghetti from a Mason jar...

Can't do that here in Utah! Trust me on that...

You sure do live in happy valley don't you. I think you discribed Utah as a whole very well. For all of the people outside of Utah. This is an accurate discription.

[Adrian]

Re: Where is the tipping point?

Those folks also operate in socialist programs. They pay more for their gas, but they also get socialist healthcare, etc. Here in the U.S. we still have to pay a hell of a lot of taxes, but then we STILL have to pay for all of our own stuff as well. Furthermore, they've also got a lot of options that we don't have, as far as alternative fuel. Their governments allow CNG systems for everybody, not just the 'elite'.

They tend to be based more in smaller geographic areas with their jobs.

Not to mention that over there, you can ride a motorcycle without having to worry about 'Sister' Gonzalez trying to make you a new passenger in her Toyota Sequoia, while changing the DVD in the overhead screen, yelling at her 7 kids in the back seat, putting on her makeup, and eating spaghetti from a Mason jar...

Can't do that here in Utah! Trust me on that...

So..are you saying that in a socialist system people have more money left over at the end of the day? Does this mean you think the aspects described by you above in reference to a socialist system work better in a socialist system then our free (well, not so free right now) market economy? BTW the alternative fuel options in Europe are the result of government mandates, not a free market economy. Apparently, though I am a strong supporter of a free market economy over socialist or communist system, the socialists are making more progress in CNG than we are. Why? Isn't our market behaving efficiently?

As far as the SUV comment....not sure what to say to that one.

[ch4]

Re: Where is the tipping point?

... Not to mention that over there, you can ride a motorcycle without having to worry about 'Sister' Gonzalez trying to make you a new passenger in her Toyota Sequoia, while changing the DVD in the overhead screen, yelling at her 7 kids in the back seat, putting on her makeup, and eating spaghetti from a Mason jar...

Can't do that here in Utah! Trust me on that...

HAW! HAW! HAW! ... I still can't stop laughing!

My favorite it the classic, "I didn't see you?!?"

[rkcarguy]

Re: Where is the tipping point?

Definitely getting to tipping point. Pres Bush Jr and all his TX Big Oil cronies are killing the USA!!! All the harm they have done with EPA draconian rules, no mandates on car makers, no building of cng infrastructure, denial to release strategic oil reserves, weaseled way into war in Iraq but still haven't caught Osama in Afghanistan/Pakistan in almost 7 years is a JOKE!!! I say THROW ALL THOSE SCOUNDRELS OUT OF OFFICE!!! Oust all the status quo Senators, Representatives, Governors, etc. OUT OF OFFICE as well . . . . Let's START OVER!!!!

Also, vote with your pocketbook as well by BOYCOTTING all USA auto makers that do not sell a cng vehicle in USA - - - thus, DO NOT buy anything from GM, Ford, Dodge, Toyota, Nissan, VW, Mazda, Lexus, Mercedes, etc. Only company with a cng car in USA is Honda . . . buy a Honda Civic GX!!

P.S. Car makers like GM, VW, Mercedes, etc. are ABSOLUTE TWO-FACE SCOUNDRELS by selling cng vehicles in Europe and Asia but NOT here in USA . . . . sacreligious!!! BOYCOTT them ALL . . . let them go bankrupt and then they might break ties with Big Oil . . . but don't hold your breath!!

I have to move alot of the blame back to government, not the auto makers. Try and import yourself a CNG car and see what happens.
Honda, as much as I like them, bought Fuelmaker and now the phill units are $4000+ instead of $2500 and near impossible to get.
We need affordable home compressors and tanks to hit the market, but to do that we have to dump all this liability lawsuit lawyer insurance crap so that some ingenious people can offer their products made in USA, and provide jobs while putting our country back on it's feet.
I agree with above, and I think it's only a matter of time until people riot and trashcan our entire government if they don't straighten out. There still are more of us than there is them....

[psmcd]

Re: Where is the tipping point?

Just a few comments on the general theme here.

If you factor in the US military budget as part of our cost of oil our true cost of gasoline and petro products equals or exceeds Euro or any other socialist system.

We may not be socialist in concept but we certainly are an empire and when you look at 50%+ of our workforce being employed by the gov and enjoying lifetime benefits the distinction becomes very murky.

Consider the revolving door for high gov officials and international corporations and no wonder people become so confused and angry.

Wall Street is not a free market no matter what anyone says to the contrary. Insider trading is everywhere. Naked short selling is common. The plunge protection team is direct gov intervention in the market - that is not free. It's really no different than communism delivering the riches to to the elites and their cronies.

Vote every incumbent out until they realize they must serve us instead of we them.

Jimmy Carter tried to implement realistic energy policy and we rejected 30 years ago what is still being ignored today.

The only realism in the current campaign comes from Ron Paul. Everything else is a circus and more of the same.

psmcd

[Andy-Paul]

Re: Where is the tipping point?

National politics aside, I think the tipping point is almost upon us for technological reasons. First and foremost, the economic cost of gasoline--as opposed to the price at the pump--is not going to slow down much due to the demand in east Asia and the discovery rates lagging behind production for the past 25 years. Between 1996 and 2006, China's demand for oil increased tenfold, and their economic demand for the refractory materials and metals has been running right behind. Can't crack petroleum without refractories, but you can make CNG without them. Now that's a stick.

Same whuppin, different switch: if you think there is a cost premium on hybrids now, just take a look at the metals futures markets. A company where I recently interviewed told me that the cost of their aluminum billets have tripled in less than two years, and I believe that the hybrid side of the transportion equation is about to get lot pricier, since it takes a lot more heat-work to clean up the nickel in those NiMH batteries.

The carrot: researchers at U of Missouri have figured out a 500psi CNG storage medium--charcoal made from waste cellulose (using corncobs is a marketing gimmick that may or may not have been intended to thumb noses at ethanol)--that in its first generation has already demonstrated a CNG capacity of 95% that in the same-sized 3600psi tank, and the next generation is already in process.

The next carrot: CNG burns cleaner than gasoline. A study funded by CARB and NYSERDA (?) not only demonstrates this (maybe conclusively, but I haven't read the paper yet), but it also demonstrates that MILs for gasoline engines converted to CNG come on at a much lower emissions level than those same MILs in a gasoline engine. This is now public knowledge, and the EPA is in the process of revising both their rules on pre-ODBII conversions (according to Jeff Clarke of NGV America) and hammering out a new set of regs for OBDII systems, with the help of the LPG and CNG lobbies. Those same lobbyists are also attempting to adjust the recertification rules so that anybody driving a 1998 F250 (for example) will be able to get a refit on it for CNG without having to go through the recert process.

There may also be an attempt to formally devolve the inspection process for NGVs down to the state level--whether that is a good thing or a bad thing remains to be seen.

So, I honestly hope to have my 1993 Volvo 240 legally converted to CNG and up and running before the midterm elections of 2010, and I may even try to take it out to Curtis' drive-in that summer--and I live only three hours from the Atlantic ocean by car. Those members of this forum in Utah, look out for a dark blue flying brick with a creamy tan roof, a couple of rock band stickers and NC plates round about then.

[Tex]

Re: Where is the tipping point?

[QUOTE=Andy-Paul;10319]National politics aside, I think the tipping point is almost upon us for technological reasons.

First and foremost, the economic cost of gasoline--as opposed to the price at the pump--is not going to slow down much due to the demand in east Asia and the discovery rates lagging behind production for the past 25 years. Between 1996 and 2006, China's demand for oil increased tenfold, and their economic demand for the refractory materials and metals has been running right behind. Can't crack petroleum without refractories, but you can make CNG without them. Now that's a stick.

Same whuppin, different switch: if you think there is a cost premium on hybrids now, just take a look at the metals futures markets. A company where I recently interviewed told me that the cost of their aluminum billets have tripled in less than two years, and I believe that the hybrid side of the transportion equation is about to get lot pricier, because it takes a lot more heat-work to clean up nickel.

The carrot: researchers at U of Missouri have figured out a 500psi CNG storage medium--charcoal made from waste cellulose (using corncobs is a marketing gimmick that may or may not have been intended to thumb noses at ethanol)--that in its first generation has already demonstrated a CNG capacity of 95% that in the same-sized 3600psi tank, and the next generation is already in process.


The next carrot: CNG burns cleaner than gasoline. A study funded by CARB and NYSERDA (?) not only conclusively demonstrates this, but it also demonstrates
that MILs for gasoline engines converted to CNG come on at a much lower emissions level than those same MILs in a gasoline engine. It is public knowledge, and the EPA is in the process of revising both their rules on pre-ODBII conversions (according to Jeff Clarke of NGV America) and hammer out a new set of regs for OBDII systems, with the help of the LPG and CNG lobbies. Those same lobbyists are also attempting to adjust the recertification rules so that anybody driving a 1998 F250 (for example) will be able to get a refit on it for CNG without having to go through the recert process.


There may also be an attempt to formally devolve the inspection process for NGVs down to the state level--whether that is a good thing or a bad thing remains to be seen.

So, I honestly hope to have my 1993 Volvo 240 legally converted to CNG, up and running, before the midterm elections of 2010, and I may even try to take it out to Curtis' drive-in that summer![/QU


Thanks for the words of encouragement that CNG may be the countries best way out of 4 or 5 dollar a gallon gas. I am new to the site came here to learn. I see a business op, I did not know that the federal reg was as big a pain as it seems to be, hope your right that the walls are falling. For all the folks that think that we are over taxed go live in Canada for two years as I did. Those poor folks pay 50% off the top + PST and GST sales tax on everything which equals another 15% plus all of the other taxes one can imagine. We still live in the greatest country on earth and I believe that Americans are different than the all others that is why we have to defend and give them aid in times of need. As for politicians it is the ones that stand in the way of us drilling, building refineries, and nuclear power plants that should get all of the blame for the current price of fuel.

[aDreamSoReal]

Re: Where is the tipping point?

For all the folks that think that we are over taxed go live in Canada for two years as I did. Those poor folks pay 50% off the top + PST and GST sales tax on everything which equals another 15% plus all of the other taxes one can imagine.

You got that right. I live on the canadian west coast. Our income tax is just out of this world. We have so much tax here, you can't [go to the bathroom] without paying tax on it. On top of that, we're paying 1.47 per liter( 5.88$ per gallon.) If things do not improve soon, i'm getting out of here.

[psmcd]

Re: Where is the tipping point?

AndyP, Tex & DSR,

I agree with all said and appreciate the reality based, sans polarized name calling.

Gov efforts can be good, but not if the costs drive us into the ground.

Always consider the hidden tax of inflation.

When trying to factor energy costs take a look at a most conservative gov perspective, remember they have their own agenda to misrepresent.

See:

http://www.minneapolisfed.org/Research/data/us/calc/

and plug in any values you recognize from years past and today. (plug in 1970's gasoline vs. today's - it ain't that bad yet)

This is money they steal from your pocket (US citizen/dollar) every year unless you have yearly adjusted wages. In reality true inflation is in the 6 - 12% range as you know from everything you buy.

Canadian, US and Euro monetary systems are no different, all diminish the purchasing power of the currency by inflating the currency - goods, meaning gasoline etc., are finite, but currencies are not.

We pay more because of supply/demand but also because of currency inflation - these are mutually exclusive factors.

Markets, investors, speculators all must stay ahead of the inflation burden or they lose. Thus cost of energy will always increase with inflating currencies.

psmcd