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How much do you think Natural Gas will go up next month?

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  • How much do you think Natural Gas will go up next month?

    Gas has jumped almost to three dollars in the bay area, while Natural Gas is 1.60 GGE. What's your guess for the start of June? I'm gonna go with two dollars per GGE in June.

  • #2
    Re: How much do you think Natural Gas will go up next month?

    The summer price of nat gas mostly depends on the weather; if it is hot and dry, the price should rise as the utlilities burn gas to generate the electricity needed to cool buildings (dry reduces the electricity from hydroelectric sources). There is a huge oversupply of nat gas at this time, which keeps prices lower.

    Who knows how high the CE pump prices will go? It has little to do with supply.

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    • #3
      Re: How much do you think Natural Gas will go up next month?

      PG&E's price for June will be $1.75279.

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      • #4
        Re: How much do you think Natural Gas will go up next month?

        Somewhat related... my May bill showed $0.29 / therm but Colorado is a different market altogether and August tends to be the lowest price for natural gas here (except last year was a complete anomaly).

        Steve

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        • #5
          Re: How much do you think Natural Gas will go up next month?

          Originally posted by 123prs View Post
          PG&E's price for June will be $1.75279.
          How did you get the pricing before the beginning of the month? Is it on there website?

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          • #6
            Re: How much do you think Natural Gas will go up next month?

            Based on SoCal Gas rate sheet:
            RATES
            G-NGVR G-NGVRC GT-NGVR
            2/

            Customer Charge, per meter per day ........................ 32.877¢
            Rate, per therm
            Procurement Charge
            1/ .......................................... 26.925¢
            Transmission Charge ............................................ 16.096¢

            Commodity Charge ............................................. 43.021¢

            Looks like base gas price should be around $.54 a gge.

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            • #7
              Re: How much do you think Natural Gas will go up next month?

              Curt, I'm not sure how you did your calculations, but based on the numbers you provided the end therm price is .54 (calculating in the appropriate taxes) and the GGE is .61 corrected to .69. This corresponds to my current SoCal gas bill as well. There is definitely a drop with meter based prices, but the pump prices are increasing.
              Either way, while the base price of NG has dropped nearly a dime per therm over the past month, it's unconscionable that Sempra/Socal/Clean Energy/Mr. Pickens have raised prices at the pump by up to .20 per GGE. In Pasadena last week the price was 1.799 yesterday 1.999. At the San Diego Shell near the airport it was 1.799 two weeks ago and 1.899 last weekend. I found the Burbank Clean Energy to have the same increases. Over the past month the PG&E pumps have been slowly increasing, but not to the same levels as Sempra stations.
              What really pisses me off, is that the pump price is nearly 3 times higher than what I pump at home. Even when you add in electrical and equipment costs per GGE; these price increases are a major rip. With uncontrolled and unregulated price increases on transportation Natural Gas that seem to be based arbitrarily on the historic fluctuating trends of gasoline prices, it becomes apparent that the only controlling factor is based upon how guilty these companies feel about their greed.
              Well head prices for NG have dropped by 50% over the past 6 months http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngw/ngupdate.asp , yet our pump prices haven't corresponded to these lowing costs (as reflected in our home utility gas bills), but have been slowly increasing, apparently a way to recoup their loses. Household use prices are regulated by law so that the therm prices must reflect the true cost, based upon supply and demand. Meanwhile, NGV's bear the weight of NG price increases. What's astounding is that the publicly publish these prices, yet continue to gouge us at the pump.
              Even more amazing, is how many flocked to the PickensPlan, as they were getting flossed by Mr. Pickens the last time gasoline prices went up. All the while Mr. Pickens' companies kept their prices climbing right beside gasoline while NG therm prices were actually dropping.
              Apparently, its happening again.
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              • #8
                Re: How much do you think Natural Gas will go up next month?

                Originally posted by CH-4 View Post
                Even more amazing, is how many flocked to the PickensPlan, as they were getting flossed by Mr. Pickens the last time gasoline prices went up. All the while Mr. Pickens' companies kept their prices climbing right beside gasoline while NG therm prices were actually dropping.
                Apparently, its happening again.
                Don't forget about all the morons who were buying (and by extension, selling) $10k+ used NGV's when the real value is < $4k.


                ?Innovation is driven by having access to things.? -- Gleb Budman, CEO of backblaze.com

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                • #9
                  Re: How much do you think Natural Gas will go up next month?

                  I use a multiplier of 1.25xtherm price.

                  As for CE, their pricing structure has always been the same, and I do not expect their business model to change. As for the utilities, their prices are set by the CUC, and is not their pricing. I don't understand it either... probably never will.

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                  • #10
                    Re: How much do you think Natural Gas will go up next month?

                    Technical Analysis of natural gas ETF UNG:NYSE

                    http://www.resourceinvestor.com/News...F-UNGNYSE.aspx
                    The energy equivalency of natural-gas compared to oil is generally 6,000 cubic feet to one barrel of oil, and the price for 1,000 cubic feet (1 Mcf) will generally trade for one-sixth of the price for one barrel of oil during normal times. As you are well aware, we are definitely experiencing anything but normal times in the current environment.


                    ?Innovation is driven by having access to things.? -- Gleb Budman, CEO of backblaze.com

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                    • #11
                      Re: How much do you think Natural Gas will go up next month?

                      PG&E posts its monthly price for the next month several days before the start of the new month. If you want to find out what the price will be, go to the following PG&E web address:

                      http://www.pge.com/tariffs/GRS.SHTML#GRS

                      Once there, scroll down and click on G-NGV2.

                      You will then see PG&E's monthly price.

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                      • #12
                        Re: How much do you think Natural Gas will go up next month?

                        I have not been to my local pump yet this month, but I expect it will drop. Lowest price (in the last 3 years) there was 1.65 in Oct 06, and it was 1.70 the last time I filled, I see the municipal pumps going down, and the commercial pumps (CE) going up, I see the CE Irvine (on CNGPRICES.COM) already at 2.00/GGE.
                        BLUE 09 GX

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                        • #13
                          Re: How much do you think Natural Gas will go up next month?

                          I'm going with flat or down, here. It has dropped 3 times since January, from $2.25 to $1.49.

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                          • #14
                            Re: How much do you think Natural Gas will go up next month?

                            Originally posted by jetboatjohnny View Post
                            I have not been to my local pump yet this month, but I expect it will drop. Lowest price (in the last 3 years) there was 1.65 in Oct 06, and it was 1.70 the last time I filled, I see the municipal pumps going down, and the commercial pumps (CE) going up, I see the CE Irvine (on CNGPRICES.COM) already at 2.00/GGE.
                            Municipal pumps will probably stay about where they are, as NG prices are likely to remain flat for a bit. CE prices will climb along with the gas prices, as that's how they do it. City of Riverside is at their record low of $1.22/gge...
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