CNG fuel prices - how long will they last?

[cngf250ut]

I got a truck over the weekend. I was really excited, or to use a bad pun, really pumped. (Get it? Yeah... Told you it was bad. )

I told a few friends at work about it and all I heard was "The price on CNG vehicles has come up so much and it's only a matter of time before the govt begins to tax it to pieces. You better enjoy it while it lasts. You probably won't even make up the price difference."

Anyone think there's merit to this, or is it just sour grapes?

[CNGfamily]

Re: CNG fuel prices - how long will they last?

"The price on CNG vehicles has come up so much and it's only a matter of time before the govt begins to tax it to pieces. You better enjoy it while it lasts. You probably won't even make up the price difference."

Anyone think there's merit to this, or is it just sour grapes?

I agree "sour grapes." Just because the airlines will be paying 4X in fuel costs this year when compared to 2000 doesn't mean that CNG will follow suit. IMHO, we're somewhat insulated from the huge increase in oil demand from China and India.
CNG is not a substitute for oil, it's not particularly transportable, so all else equal, the prices tend to be driven by the local market. The part that I've not figured out is whether or not it's reasonable to expect large changes due to the impact of increasing LNG usage... if there were a lot of LNG infrastructure, then it could make CNG a better substitute for oil worldwide, then gas and CNG have a market reason for being in lock-step pricewise.

[ch4]

Re: CNG fuel prices - how long will they last?

I thought that gasoline taxes were users fees.

That way your favorite legistator/politician may say "I never raised taxes!"

In UT they just passed a law to add 8 whole cents/GGE.
This because some of us were paying 82 dollars for a special clean fuel plate.
"Clean Fuel Clean Air" then all the hy-breeders found a loophole and put the clean fuel plate on their gas-guzzilers.

For the miles I drive $82/yr is much more than 8 cents/GGE.

The prices for Clean Energy are pretty-much fixed to the price of gasoline.
I love T Boone "you whiner shouldn't complain, I'm not fixing the price to Supreme and NG has alot more octane." I parapharased him but that was the jest.

[ajgiorgi]

Re: CNG fuel prices - how long will they last?

2) The lack of vehicles finally chokes it off and it dies as an automotive fuel. There will always be some diehards but right now its still in its infancy and could easily be squashed just by lack of vehicles.

I think it's sour grapes also because CNG vehicles are probably like 5 percent of total vehicles on road. The governments not going to waste time on 5 percent.

Also, I agree with Thunderstick on his number 2 qoute. I think there will only be a handful of vehicles available and I don't think the big three are getting it. They decided to overlook CNG and move onto Electric, Hydrogen, and any other variations of fueling. So I think the CNG cars will be there, but few. Which may or may not drive up prices in the long run depending what happens to the price of a barrel of oil in the future.

[sevenechomike]

Re: CNG fuel prices - how long will they last?

Actually CNG vehicles represent an extremely small fraction of the vehicles --- only .04 percent of the vehicles on the road. Estimates of light CNG vehicles are less than 100,000 of 235 million vehicles in the US. There are so few CNG vehicles that the vast majority of people don't even know they exist.

By comparison, Argentina has 24.9% (1.5m) of their vehicles running CNG, Pakistan has 1.65m vehicles (24.9%), and even Brazil, which everyone thinks has mostly ethanol powered cars, has 10% (1.425m) of it's cars running CNG and only 7% of their cars regularly running on ethanol.

[Timon]

Re: CNG fuel prices - how long will they last?

And they call those nations "Third World"

[Stu Man]

Re: CNG fuel prices - how long will they last?

Hi cngf250ut :

Your quote of ; "it's only a matter of time before the govt begins to tax it to pieces. You better enjoy it while it lasts."

I heard the exact same quote from Nai Sayers way back in 1991 when I got my truck converted.

I'm still chuckling

Stu Man

[freedml]

Re: CNG fuel prices - how long will they last?

They are definitely 'third world.' They pay 1/3 of the price we pay for gas!

[Adrian]

Re: CNG fuel prices - how long will they last?

And they call those nations "Third World"

I think unfortunately we in the US are the "third world" when it comes to alternative fuel use and infrastructure development (CNG) when compared to many other parts of the world. The whole "the EPA is protecting us through their laws on CNG conversion" argument doesn't hold any water in my opinion. A conversion in the European Union can be done for less than $4000 total including the tank...and the European standards are safe...they're just not as hindered by red tape as we are in the US (surprisingly). Funny how many on this forum like to focus on India and exploding cng tanks anytime conversions that are non EPA are mentioned. Instead I politely suggest we should look at Europe and their sub $4000 SAFE conversions and realize that it's not safety that is costing us $18,000 for a CNG conversion (BAF for Ford F-150), but our wonderful EPA that is devoid of logic. Anyway, I think CNG prices will likely stabilize between $2-$3 per GGE, while gasoline and diesel will likely continue to get more expensive.

[cnielsen]

Re: CNG fuel prices - how long will they last?

If you want to hedge, just buy stock in Natural Gas company stocks.

[Devo]

Re: CNG fuel prices - how long will they last?

Instead I politely suggest we should look at Europe and their sub $4000 SAFE conversions and realize that it's not safety that is costing us $18,000 for a CNG conversion (BAF for Ford F-150), but our wonderful EPA that is devoid of logic.

Amen.

Also, the adoption of alternative fuels will help diversify our transportation network and shield us from abrupt markets shifts and speculation. For example, I see a large increase in retail prices coming because of diesel prices and our dependence on diesel powered trucks to get our products to market. Alternative fuels will help diversify us in such times.

However, taxation on multiple fuels will be more difficult than it was before with one fuel, especially when special interest groups will be screaming for different tax rates because of each fuel's agricultural, domestic, environmental, etc. implications. I can only imagine what our lawmakers will conjure up to get their "supposed" share from sales and the vast wings of government that will need to be imposed to enforce it.

[BGB]

Re: CNG fuel prices - how long will they last?

OK Curtis, You told me to post, so here goes....


Interesting NY Times article on Natural Gas Prices
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/29/bu...yt&oref=slogin

[cngsteve]

Re: CNG fuel prices - how long will they last?

Nice post BGB. Thanks.